Tuesday, July 03, 2007

金手指貼士第二季總結

7月第一個交易日,係時候總結孫柏文隻金手指為大家篤嘅貼士第二季嘅表現。可以用以下12個字做總結,「H股好勁,put輪打靶,其他發呆」。以下個成績表(附表)可以清楚顯示第二季表現,跟住我會講吓未來嘅展望。

白銀

白銀(圖1)上升主要有兩個因素。第一就係基本供求,第二就係貨幣政策。喺早幾個禮拜,白銀協會Silver Institute出嘅一年一度白銀供求報告裏面,講得清楚白銀需求喺06年跌咗1.5%,礦產量供應就升咗少少,冇1%。

不過大家要記得,白銀06年嘅 平均價錢比起05年升超過50%。價升50%,新供應先至升少少,需求又只係跌咗啲。

仲有礦產供應6億幾盎斯,需求係9億盎斯,之間嘅分別就有存貨來彌補。其中一個最大嘅存貨來源──各國嘅政府、央行,舊年就賣咗7000幾萬盎斯。以前啲政府、央行,加埋加埋有幾十億盎斯白銀,到舊年尾就只剩1億幾盎斯。

最後,白銀用來做首飾嘅需求大跌,用來做菲林相紙都係一樣,不過做機械、工業嘅需求增加,就完全彌補以上兩樣用途嘅跌幅。供求上,銀價應升。

而喺貨幣政策上,應該會「樓泡爆破印銀紙,美元貶值金銀升」。

所以維持原本建議同目標價:強力買入、120美元盎斯。

和黃

我舊年建議 買和黃(圖2),係因3G好似卒之覺悟,推行「收費文化大革命」X-Series。將大家最痛恨電訊商嘅一貫硬膠收費模式,完全打破,變成公平簡單嘅收費 模式。所以如果連X-Series都救唔到3,咁就再冇方法可以救到3。

今年頭兩個半月,3嘅全球上客量有70萬,令總客量有1472萬。希望到和黃喺9 月出半年業績嘅時候,總客量可以有突破。

不過最緊要就係,如果X-Series呢個收費模式,真係受到消費者愛戴,上客成本應該下跌。到時如果上客量勁, 不過上客成本跌,平均用戶收費可以保持,市場就會相信3得救。

維持原本建議同目標價:強力買入、100元。

H指沽證3497

我叫大家喺舊年買H指沽證(圖4及5),係因為覺得舊年年H指走勢同03年太似。H指之後都有跌,隻認沽證最高都有升超過79%,不過因為我冇叫大家賣,隻認沽證喺上個禮拜打靶,輸足100%。同大家一樣,我都係血本無歸。慘!


江西銅業

銅價現在喺舊年第三季嘅水平,舊年第三季江銅(圖3)賺0.5元一股。只要銅價維持喺呢個水平,江銅每年可以賺2元。亦只要市場相信銅價唔跌,可以接受8倍市盈率,江銅就會16元一股。

維持原本建議同目標價:強力買入、16元。

2 comments:

  1. PacMan

    不以成敗論英雄.

    But still you gotta explain your point of holding 'physical' silver.
    It has at least several drawbacks:

    1. storage costs
    2. standardization; you recommend a K company in buying silver, when I sell it, is it restricted to this company? What happen if i sell it to other company, will i lose a premium? Is K company perpetual.
    3. I'm no chemist but will silver oxidize and lose value?

    I care to respond because I think you are not a 財經演員 and I strongly believe you make recommendations wholeheartedly in a good faith. However I notice you got fans too and every penny is hard earned. If I think your theory or strategy has fallacy, i gotta voice it.

    I think you always got the correct statistics and information but sometimes make a bad choice or come to a wrong conclusion, I will write another message when i have more time

    ReplyDelete
  2. There are two ultimate reasons to hold physical silver.

    1. Because on silver exchanges (biggest being in America) there are a lot of short positions. These Short positions are so large, that even if all the world's silver supply for a whole year were used to cover these positions, it will not be enough.

    So when the shit hits the fan, you will see exchanges implementing delays in delivery. Similar to HKEx announcing instead of T+2 to settle, T+30. Happened to silver before in the early 80s.

    2. Because paper silver is linked to the various futures exchanges prices. When they institute T+30, you will actually see the prices quoted on the exchanges be lower than real physical dealing, which by design settles at T - the day that the trade is made.

    So in order to capture the mother load of upswing in silver (which will come when these short positions truly gets squeezed) you have to be in possession of physical silver.

    As for your concern about storage. 1. Storage cost - Yes it is a cost. I rented a facility to store mine.

    2. Standardization - Good thing silver is something human has used for thousands of years. Hence the technology to figure out purity is very established. In fact, Hong Kong has a lot of such shops that buy your silver. Much better than the US. So selling is not an issue. Especially when the short squeeze comes, and manufacturers are clamouring for physical silver.

    3. Silver does oxidize. But you can stop the process by placing it in contact with aluminum foil. That way the oxidization occurs at the aluminum. Who says my A level chem has no use as a financial BSer hahahahah

    But my friend. I really do appreciate greatly your comments. I do try to make comments with the data on hand, which of course will result in the occasional mistake... Ok, more than occasional mistake. hahahahha

    I look forward to your future comments very much.

    = )

    ReplyDelete