Monday, September 08, 2008

揭兩房被救的大贏家

噚日,《蘋果日報》嘅同事應該都好遲放工,仲分分鐘得個等字,因為要好被動咁等新消息。大家一定估孫柏文講緊我哋政治版嘅同事,因為佢哋要等立法會選舉結果──咁諗就錯。

小圈子功能組別選舉,投票人數少,好快就知,所以唔使點等。直選點票,因為我哋特區已經變成香蕉共和國,啲同事返屋企瞓吓覺,今朝起身食個晏晝,都應該未有結果。

其實,我係講緊我啲財經版同事。咁佢哋等啲乜?咪就係房利美Fannie Mae同房貸美Freddie Mac,究竟會唔會被收歸國有。如果真係收,股票會唔會變牆紙,揸佢哋啲債券使唔使輸錢?
如果要輸,輸幾多?
輸錢嘅債主,例如我國人行,又會有乜反應?

信祖國變超級大國

雖然,正式消息就完全冇,得啲花旗國財經狗仔隊,見到財長保爾森、兩房嘅總裁、聯儲局主席伯南克同房屋信貸局局長,禮拜五一齊開會。不過就令人推斷,兩房國有化在即。好彩唔係特區狗仔隊跟,如果唔係一定估佢哋搞5P Greek party。

大家可能會問:「早排聯儲局唔係已經出咗手,話會保證兩房啲債?無限量借錢畀佢哋?唔係已經搞掂,救咗兩房咩?」係。係已經出咗手,用盡全力相救,不過應該係聯儲局自己頂唔順。

以前我都講過,聯儲局資產5000億,仲要係啲好嘢已經俾人換晒,兩房個窿就50000億,點救?

冇錯!聯儲局呢間花旗國中央銀行冇錢,要財政部救。就係咁,我都真係信祖國變成花旗國級嘅超級大國。因為有小道消息話,祖國人行都好似聯儲局咁作為中央銀行,資產好似好多,不過都係唔夠錢,要問財政部攞。人行應該成手兩房債券,睇住個價日日跌頂唔順。

我食唔到嘅大茶飯


亦因為個個買咗兩房債嘅人,全部頂唔順,罷買,財長唔出手唔得。我落筆呢刻,仍然唔知點救兩房,不過應該所有兩房嘅債,都會有政府白紙黑字嘅保證。後果係現有兩房債券價,將會同花旗國債睇齊,差唔多80點子嘅息差將會消失,花旗國債總數升50000億。咁嘅情況,金同銀都仲可以跌,美元升,有冇搞錯。

有冇大贏家?有。就係嗰啲買兩房同國債息差收窄嘅人,例如全球最大債券基金公司PIMCO。唔怪得佢哋嘅話事人Bill Gross,上個禮拜講到如果財長唔救就世界末日,擘爛面都要佢出手。

真係一鑊我食唔到嘅大茶飯。

4 comments:

  1. Pakman, you should not miss those Big Winners whom short sell FNM & FRE ... I did it ... virtually on facebook ... few weeks ago ... hahhaha

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  2. hahahahhaha

    Shorting banks and financial firms is like shorting tech back in 2000.

    Can't really lose... in fact might spoil one as an investor.

    Know when to cover your shorts my friend.

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  3. I think you are getting the wrong idea about the dollar. The US debt portfolio did not just increased by $5 trillion, nor would currency traders think that's the end of the dollar. :) After all, moving stuff off the balance sheet doesn't mean it doesn't exist, we saw that with subprime mortgages. The fundamentals about the dollar did not changed because the composition of its financial statement has not changed. =)

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  4. 厲害







    To the world you may be one person,but to one person you may be the world.

    ReplyDelete