Monday, October 27, 2008

滙豐卒之買得?

上個禮拜五,孫柏文卒之感受得到啲「大行」分析員嘅說話,對市場、股價影響力比自己強些少。大家作為《金手指》嘅fan屎,應該記得我曾建議過「一注獨沽賣滙豐」。

建議當日,即係舊年7月30日,滙豐賣140港元一股。我話過滙豐一定要對手上、當時估值500億美元嘅次按債券,價值上要重新評估,咁做對公司股價一定有壓力。亦提供當時被鬧到狗血淋頭,之後睇番尚算保守嘅目標價 112.5港元一股。不過嗰日滙豐股價升。

我記得次按風暴一路打落去時,有好多我識嘅滙豐股東,同我講到滙豐時,就算我如何用數據分析,佢哋最後都會重複又重複咁同自己講,我之後形容為滙豐股東嘅護身咒語──「滙豐派息高!」

舊年12月12日,我又寫過一篇「滙豐取消派息?」嘅文章。話滙豐為保手上資金,可能要學當時宣佈取消派息嘅UBS。不過嗰日滙豐股價冇乜點郁。上個禮拜五,啲分析員走出嚟話:「滙豐對於手上現在估值為300億美元嘅次按債券,實在係太樂觀,要大幅貶值。不過如果貶值至到較為合理水平,滙豐嘅資本就會降至同其他要英國政府注入資金嘅銀行一樣。派息自然凍過水,減一半。」

就係咁,特區股市嗰堵「跌穿一百蚊,我就會買!」嘅滙豐股價血肉城牆,一擊即破。亦令我今個周末最常聽到嘅問題就係:「滙豐到沙士價,買得未?」

等埋禮拜三至扑槌


我嘅答案係:「等多兩日,禮拜三決定。」

對冲基金贖回潮雖然就快完,不過未完。上個禮拜五,CNBC訪問UBS嘅Art Cashin,佢話股市跌勢應該喺呢幾日內有個了斷,但究竟呢個「了斷」係咩樣,佢就話唔知。對上一次Art Cashin咁講,喺02年花旗國股市見底之前嗰個禮拜。

想買嘅人,不如等埋呢幾日。

18 comments:

  1. 孫兄,小弟係外行人,响「你貼股我教路」聽唔明跑馬地陳生講點樣日元升跌影響拆倉,同埋你點解問咩 yen intervene 都唔知乜水唉我收晒皮,望孫兄唔好介意有時間還請指點指點~~

    ReplyDelete
  2. Pakman,

    我都唔係好明. 等到星期三, 等什麼啊?

    ReplyDelete
  3. 期指結算??

    若68元又点睇?

    ReplyDelete
  4. 喂!
    隻2314,和金及銀是否需要溝溝貨阿隊長.

    ReplyDelete
  5. 金唔怕買.
    做個黃金聖斗士.

    奮鬥

    為柏白拯救佢心中的女神....

    ReplyDelete
  6. 唔怕買?

    我以為袛可以向柏文追討損失,現在買可向亞羊索償.

    條友好以無做免責聲明,有任何損失者大可向柏文索償.

    ReplyDelete
  7. 阿貓阿狗阿羊就話追唔到啫!

    大大個公眾人物阿柏文在此提供貼士,意見,買賣建議,想追討損失都唔係無可能.

    唔知D長官會唔會幫拖.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Pakman, I agreed with you last year when you recommend to sell HSBC. I used to work for HSBC for a few years before I left in 2006, when the share price was around $140. I was smart enough to sell all my share options at that time too. I also hate people defend themselves by saying 'buy HSBC to earn the interest'. We have won hahahaha :D

    ReplyDelete
  9. Ok.

    I will spend a little more time explaining the relationship between Yen/stocks

    Weds... look out for it.

    ReplyDelete
  10. yo tomato sauce

    what line of biz are you in now?

    As for wait till weds... it is because my next column goes out then.

    Of course, you can always write to the business desk asking for my column to go back to a daily format.

    business ("at") appledaily.com

    ReplyDelete
  11. 我唔係話幫邊個,現在H.K.有那個似PAKMAN咁CFM叫你賣乜乜買乜乜先,同埋仲有期限都未到,唔通你要個個公眾人物都講D唔知係乜,你自已分析啦,總之呢過13000,就可以睇14500,跌穿10500,下個支持位就系9500啦果D呀,唔該,你唔相信就唔好跟買,買左就自已負責O.K.成年人

    ReplyDelete
  12. 當年一注獨買135
    我而加都味走
    就快破產....

    股神無份
    輸神有份

    ReplyDelete
  13. about HSBC. you are right (and i was wrong), and you were right again this monday.

    Respect. :)

    ReplyDelete
  14. 羊通常愛沽沽.
    唔係又点叫羊沽.
    羊沽通常被人劏........

    我自己就135應該全年反彈高位沽沽....

    對不起....
    若要向別人追討的話,咁...又唔找 X叔,x生.. 等等.

    要知道買股票多數是輸的, 我也曾交了很多所謂學費.

    是否閣下出於貪心要tips.??
    若亞羊的文字對閣下有任何不安的話,就講句對不起.... 不過事實就是 :買股平常心,輸贏自在些..

    ReplyDelete
  15. 仲有一句, 今天升市,多數係某些人仕平咗D沽空倉.

    或者接近10天線的話,再沽....
    小心.....

    ReplyDelete
  16. I read to many blogs, you guys love HSBC and Cathay Pacific too much !!!I hardly ever see you guys like ICBC or Bank of China ? Are you all still influenced by the British to support these entities ??

    ReplyDelete
  17. I read too many blogs, you guys love HSBC and Cathay Pacific too much !!!I hardly ever see you guys like ICBC or Bank of China ? Are you all still influenced by the British to support these entities ?? Sometimes dont get too emotional by loving or liking an entity...For me, I wont buy any HSBC until all their BAD LOAN PROVISIONS and DERIVATIVE VEHICLES has been MARKED TO MARKET, why buy a stock where they are NOT going to tell you exactly what they own inside their balance sheet...Bank of East Asia finally realized their loss, it was 35 billion HKD of losses...worst than what the CEO expected 3.5 billion HKD..so if HSBC has MASSIVE exposure on these, how much will you all value them at ??? $ 50 ? $ 60 ? or $ 100..? By buying their shares, you all are get supporting them by FABRICATING their BALANCE SHEET without PENALTY !!!

    ReplyDelete